Mike Clay, ESPN Senior WriterOct 22, 2024, 05:40 PM ET
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- Fantasy football, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
- Member of Pro Football Writers of America
- Founding director of Pro Football Focus Fantasy
- 2013 FSTA award winner for most accurate preseason rankings
Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can help you make the best lineup decisions. By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
Down below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.
To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB Cheatsheet.
Note that, unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjusts to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.
Projected Shadow Matchups
Panthers' Diontae Johnson vs. Broncos' Pat Surtain II (Shadow)
Surtain has shadowed DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson, aligning against the four standout receivers on a combined 86 of 122 routes, including 77 of 80 perimeter routes. The receiving lines of the four were as follows: Metcalf (4 targets-3 receptions-29 yards-0 touchdowns), Pickens (4-2-29-0), Evans (3-2-17-0) and Wilson (7-5-41-0). Denver has been in man coverage more than any other defense (59%) and has allowed an NFL-low two TDs and the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (fourth fewest to the perimeter).
No receiver has reached 18 fantasy points in a game against Denver this season. Surtain (concussion) has missed nearly all of the team's snaps over the last two weeks, but assuming he's back, there's a good chance he aligns on Johnson the 78% of the time he's on the boundary. Shadow coverage isn't a lock here, as Xavier Legette has impressed on the other side of the field, but it's a strong bet.
Takeaway:
Steelers' George Pickens vs. Giants' Deonte Banks (Shadow)
Banks has shadowed in every game this season, traveling with Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins and A.J. Brown. He aligned against the receivers on 164 of 216 routes, including 155 of 167 on the perimeter. Their receiving lines were as follows: Jefferson (6-4-59-1), McLaurin (8-6-22-0), Cooper (12-7-86-2), Lamb (8-7-98-1), Metcalf (7-4-55-0). Higgins (7-7-77-0) and Brown (5-5-89-1). That works out to an average of 16.9 fantasy points per game.
Top receivers clearly haven't had much trouble against New York and the Giants have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the perimeter this season. That's where Pickens aligns 69% of the time, which is about how often he can expect to see Banks in coverage in Week 8.
Takeaway: Fresh off a strong showing in Russell Wilson's debut, Pickens can be upgraded.
Giants' Malik Nabers vs. Steelers' Joey Porter Jr. (Shadow)
Porter hasn't shadowed on a full-time basis since Week 3, but that was somewhat expected against the Colts, Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb plays in the slot a ton), Davante Adams-less Raiders and a Jets team with two alpha receivers. He did travel against Drake London, Courtland Sutton and Quentin Johnston during Weeks 1-3, aligning against the three on a combined 58 of 84 routes, including 57 of 66 on the perimeter. London posted a 2-15-0 line on four targets, Sutton managed 1-26-0 on five targets and Johnston put up 2-44-1 on a pair of targets.
The Giants have a clear No. 1 perimeter receiver in Nabers, so we should expect Porter to travel with him the 75% of the time he's on the boundary.
Takeaway: Porter did well when shadowing earlier this season, but considering the Steelers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers over the last four weeks, it's hard to be too worried about this matchup. If anything, it's a minor downgrade.
Diontae Johnson's fantasy outlook for Week 8
Check out Diontae Johnson's fantasy stats as he prepares to face the Broncos in Week 8.
Tough Matchups
Patriots' Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne vs. Jets' D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II and Sauce Gardner
Despite two starters -- Reed and Carter -- missing substantial action, including Sunday night's loss in Pittsburgh, the Jets have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, including the second fewest to the perimeter and 13th-fewest to the slot. The Jets have allowed the second-fewest receptions, second-fewest yards and a league-low 53% catch rate to the position.
Downgrade this entire WR room and note that Douglas (77% slot), likely the only New England receiver you're considering, will have a better outlook if Carter remains sidelined.
Cardinals' Marvin Harrison Jr., Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson vs. Dolphins' Kendall Fuller, Kader Kohou and Jalen Ramsey
Miami has surrendered the fewest fantasy points to WRs, including the fifth fewest to the perimeter and third fewest to the slot. It's notable that the Dolphins have faced the second-fewest WR targets and are mid-pack in efficiency against the position, but this is also one of the most-talented corner trios in the league and only one wideout (DK Metcalf) has reached 15 fantasy points against them.
Ramsey has shadowed in two games (against Metcalf and Calvin Ridley), so it's possible he travels with Harrison, though note that Fuller was sidelined for most of those two affairs. Arizona receivers get a mild to moderate downgrade in this matchup.
Daniel Dopp: Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr. need couples therapy
Field Yates dives into the worrisome dynamic Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. after Harrison's 3-catch game vs. the Chargers.
Advantageous Matchups
Falcons' Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud and Drake London vs. Buccaneers' Tyrek Funderburk, Tykee Smith and Zyon McCollum
These teams met in Week 5 and Kirk Cousins proceeded to throw for 509 yards and four touchdowns. London (13-12-154-1), Mooney (16-9-105-2), KhaDarel Hodge (2-2-67-1) and Ray-Ray McCloud III (9-6-66-0) were all productive, while TE Kyle Pitts (8-7-88-0) was also in on the fun. We obviously can't expect that level of production in this meeting, but it's still a plus matchup.
Despite a favorable schedule, the zone-heavy Tampa Bay pass defense has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers, including the fourth most to the perimeter and sixth most to the slot. A lot of that damage came with top corner Jamel Dean (currently on IR) on the field. Atlanta's receivers should, of course, be upgraded.
Packers' Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Christian Watson vs. Jaguars' Tyson Campbell, Jarrian Jones and Ronald Darby
The Jaguars have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers (most over expected), including the most to perimeter and fifth most to the slot. They're top six in points allowed to both right and left boundary receivers and sit top five in catches, yards and touchdowns (10) allowed to the position. Eight receivers have produced 15-plus fantasy points against Jacksonville.
Doubs, Watson and Wicks will primarily work against Campbell and Darby on the outside, with Reed facing off with Jones in the slot. Upgrade the Packers' passing game.
Why Yates says Romeo Doubs is a confident start from the waiver wire
Field Yates explains why Packers' WR Romeo Doubs is a trustworthy start as a wide receiver coming off of the fantasy waiver wire.
Browns' Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy vs. Ravens' Brandon Stephens, Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins
Baltimore has allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as well as the third-most points to the perimeter and second most to the slot. The Ravens have allowed a league-high 12 touchdowns to wide receivers and five wideouts have already hit the 20-point mark against them. With Amari Cooper gone, Tillman (65% perimeter) and Jeudy (64%) are Cleveland's boundary receivers, with Moore (39%) in the slot.
This is a tricky situation with Jameis Winston replacing Deshaun Watson under center, but this is a positive matchup and likely will include a pass-friendly game script.
